Wednesday 3 September 2014

Scottish Referendum

On September 18th, 2014, the citizens of Scotland will vote on arguably the most important political and socio-economic question in many generations: Should Scotland be an independent nation?

There is lots of political jostling for position and scandalous scare-mongering going on from both camps, which is detrimental to voters obtaining the facts they need to make an informed decision. This means that many, including myself, find themselves in the undecided camp. With 3 weeks to go, this is rather scary!

This article was not written by me, but by a friend of a friend. Enormous credit must go to this author for their exhaustive research - it has been extremely helpful to me in organising my thoughts regarding the independence referendum. This author is a Yes voter, but I think the article has been written from an undecided / impartial perspective and has led the author to their Yes decision. Enjoy...!





Please read.

 

This document is comprised of information I have researched and the conclusions are my own.

I am open to all discussions on this – in fact I welcome any other views. 
This referendum is too important to me to get wrong so if you have views please let me know what they are.

I am not interested in opinions that are not backed up by facts.  Nor, if I’m honest, am I interested in sentiment.  I know William Wallace was a good guy.  I know we have achieved amazing things across the world as a united nation.  However, this is not the time for sentiment.  This is the time for looking forward and working out if we can achieve more for our economy and ourselves if we become neighbours to rUK rather than remaining partners with them.

Please be aware that if you comment on this I may bombard you with more questions, particularly about your sources.  I am not being difficult.  I just want to get facts right in my head.
My current Yes stance is not set in stone.  I am open minded about this and more than happy to change my mind if positive and solid arguments are put forward for the No campaign.

I will read everything that anyone sends me.  I will question it (whether you are arguing for Yes or No).  I will make up my mind based on my findings.

Thanks for reading this and, if you come back to me, thanks for your input.

neverpresume@gmail.com


THE SCOTTISH REFERENDUM

     WHY I AM VOTING YES.

This is a personal view based on the research I have conducted since the referendum vote was announced.  Like almost everyone I had questions and I often found that I wasn’t getting clear or unbiased information from politicians on either side, the news coverage or the media in general.  I took to the internet.  Every time I had a query, or if someone posed a question to me for which I had no answer or clear picture, I trawled the internet for information. 

I have tried to give links to key papers, news coverage or blogs.  I haven’t given them all as I didn’t take note of everything I read during my journey and also, this would end up being a very boring list of links with huge amounts of further reading. 

The sections are as follows:

Currency

EU

Oil

Economy

Trident, NATO and Defence

Devolved Scotland and Devo Max

Everyday Living

CURRENCY

It has been clearly stated by all three major parliamentary parties that currency union will not be happening in the event of a yes.  This leaves joining the Euro (if a member of the EU), linking ourselves informally to £ (or another currency) or adopting our own currency. 

The Euro? 

The Eurozone came into being with the Maastricht Treaty of 1993 and was to be implemented by 1999 at which time 11 out of the then 15 EU member states joined.  Since 1999, the member states have grown to 28 of which only 18 countries actually use the Euro.  It is true that any country joining the EU is legally bound (with the exception of Denmark and UK) to join the Euro but this can only be achieved when “convergence criteria” have been met.  Sweden, who joined the EU in 1995 has never met the membership criteria (purposefully?).

The last three countries to join the EU were:

Romania 2007 – currency – Leu

Bulgaria 2013 – currency – Lev

Croatia 2013 – currency -  Kuna

In 2004 ten countries joined the EU.  These were:

Slovenia – currency – Euro (2007)                             Poland - currency - Zloty

Slovakia – currency – Euro (2009)                              Lithuania - currency - Litas

Malta – currency – Euro (2008)                                  Hungary - currency - Forint

Latvia – currency – Euro (2014)                                  Czech Republic - currency – Czech Koruna

Estonia – currency – Euro (2011)

Cyprus – currency – Euro (2008)

Obviously Scotland being a part of the EU is at the centre of us having to join the Euro.  EU membership is addressed later.  What is clear to me is that if we are a member (new or otherwise) of EU, we do not have to automatically use the Euro.  Simply looking up the currencies of the EU member states and seeing when they joined and what their currency is now proves this.

Currency Union with rUK

The more I read, the more likely I am to believe that a currency union is possible and also probable.  A blog written by Rev Stuart Campbell   http://t.co/LNZGpCBZsW - points out many interesting facts using the UK GDP over the last few years of recession.

He looks at a BBC graph showing GDP growth from 1990-2014.  UK growth 2007-2009 was -2.5% at its lowest (for one quarter) but most of the time was less than this, averaging out at -1.46% over five quarters.

He points out that this negative growth has “wrecked a havoc on the UK’s economy” including our credit rating being downgraded, house prices dropping by nearly 20% in a 12 month period, unemployment rising, wages cut or static, etc, etc… “The recession officially ended in the middle of 2009…but the brutal austerity…will outlast it by at least a decade.”

He talks of how the rUK will lose £ billions in oil revenue, whisky exports, tourism, amongst others if we vote yes.

He confirms that the currency union rejection was taken on the specific advice of former chancellor and Better Together chief, Alistair Darling.

He talks of how Scotland is unlikely to reject a share in the UK debts in return for a formal currency union – “if the rUK economy went down the toilet it would drag Scotland with it”.

 

In the New Statesman, David Scheffer argues:

“the Scottish government, if it follows Osborne’s punitive example, could refuse to negotiate about at all.  Scotland need not negotiate sharing the UK debt and could simply let Westminster shoulder the entire estimated UK debt of £1.6trn in 2016/17. That is certainly the logic of the rUK being a continuator state.  Nothing in international law requires Scotland to pay one sterling pound of UK debt if the rUK is deemed the continuator state.  Nonetheless, the Scottish government has already  offered to accept the liability of an estimated £100-£130bn as an independent Scotland’s share of the overall UK debt, but only as the end point of post-referendum negotiations…. Dire warnings that Scotland’s credibility in the markets would somehow nosedive if this transfer of debt were to happen overlook two simple facts. First, the UK Treasury already has agreed to cover all UK gilts in the event of independence, a point Osborne made in his speech.  So there is no default on the horizon to panic investors. Second, Scotland would start afresh as a debt-free nation with the apparent agreement, indeed blessing, of the rUK”


Professor Jim Gallagher, recruited to the No campaign as a Special Advisor, stated at the House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee that the treasury currency union advice “might be right, it might be wrong”. 

The currency union rejection seems to have been instigated at the behest of Alistair Darling and is based (from what I can make out) on a memo from permanent secretary Sir Nicholas MacPherson to George Osborne on 11 February 2014.  However, not only have these claims been dismissed by leading economists such as Professor Leslie Young,  also “in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility.”


Scotland does a lot of business with rUK and vice versa.  In the event of a Yes vote, will we find that rUK government is prepared to endanger this business?  I find it extremely unlikely.  The media recently talked of an unknown minister mentioning that “of course” there would be room for discussion and compromise on currency union (citing Trident as a bargaining tool).  

Given the number of countries worldwide with formal currency unions, if we have one with rUK we will still count as an independent country.  Formal currency unions exist between (amongst others):

Euro – 18 countries

SGD Singapore Dollar - Singapore and Brunei

CFA Franc – 14 countries

It may be that rUK tells us that we cannot have a formal currency union but this does not stop us from using the £.  Any country in the world can use any currency it likes.  You can’t stop it.  Countries informally using another country’s currency include:

Hong Kong dollar – used by Macau

New Zealand dollar – used by Cook Islands, Nauro, Niue, Pitcairn Island

Swiss Franc – used by Liechenstein

US dollar – used informally by 10 countries including Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, British Virgin Islands.

Taking Panama as an example, as it seems to be cited by most, it should be noted that it has an economy growing faster than ours and is the 7th most stable economy in the world according to the Adam Smith Institute.

The Bank of England has stated that it is willing to speak to both sides about a formal currency union – if both sides agree.  “The Bank of England would implement whatever monetary arrangements were put in place.” (Mark Carney)

 In his speech when he visited Scotland in January, Mark Carney stated:

“What follows is not an assessment of whether Scotland will be overall better or worse off under independence – that is a multi-faceted judgement for the Scottish people. It does not pass judgement on the relative merits of the different currency options for an independent Scotland, but instead draws attention to the key issues. This is a technocratic assessment of what makes an effective currency union between independent nations.”

After he has set out his arguments for a successful currency union based the success or not of those existing around the world, Mr Carney sums up:

“All aspects of any such arrangement would be a matter for the Scottish and UK Parliaments. If such deliberations ever were to happen, they would need to consider carefully what the economics of currency unions suggest are the necessary foundations for a durable union, particularly given the clear risks if these foundations are not in place…. In short, a durable, successful currency union requires some ceding of national sovereignty.”


National sovereignty is defined as:

The supreme, absolute, and uncontrollable power by which an independent state is governed and from which all specific political powers are derived; the intentional independence of a state, combined with the right and power of regulating its internal affairs without foreign interference.

What is not discussed by Mr Carney because, as he says, it is not up to him, is what part of and how much national sovereignty would need to be ceded.

Here’s another thing, it may be called the Bank of England but it is not England’s bank with their money from which they hand us cash on a benefit scheme only from the kindness of their hearts.  The BoE was nationalised after WW2.  This means it is OUR bank too.  Please note that any argument that we will have no influence over our currency/interest rates if independent is null and void as the BoE is independent of the UK Government.  Together or apart, we have no influence on decisions made by the BoE.

Finance Secretary John Swinney has called for the Westminster to detail the share of Scotland’s assets from the UK coffers

“Mr Swinney's call follows comments from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander who himself recently admitted to the Scottish Parliament that an independent Scotland will inherit a share of UK assets.   He said billions of pounds could be paid to an independent Scotland in cash as many of the assets paid for by Scottish tax-payers will be physically located in the rest of the UK.”


 

It is true that if we do not have a formal currency union with another country, we will find borrowing harder.  However, other countries manage so why shouldn’t we?  We currently make up 8.4% of the UK population and in 2012-13 we contributed 9.3% of the government revenue - £53.1 billion.  In 2008-9 we contributed 10.3% of the total government revenue.


 

 

OUR OWN CURRENCY?

Ireland continued to use the £ in the immediate aftermath of their split with UK, introducing their own currency in 1928 and pegging it initially to the £.

I don’t think that initially our own currency is a viable option.  There has been no talk of this from either side and so I won’t dwell on it.

There have been various reports ranging from us going bankrupt to us becoming AAA rated and one of the richest countries in the world.  I’ve given up listening.  I’m not saying it will be easy but I do know that other countries have formal currency agreements, informal currency use or have set up their own currency post-independence.  Some have worked better than others but there are success stories in each area.  It should also be noted that £ sterling was not, itself, “independent” until very recently:


Whatever happens, we will have money.  We will not be bartering our children for a loaf of bread!

 

Economy

In 2012-13 – Scottish revenue (minus North Sea revenue) was 8.2% of the UK revenue.  Our expenditure was 9.3% of the UK spend. Our balance deficit was £14.180 billion (excluding North Sea revenue) which is -11.2% of GDP.  This is against the UK deficit of £91.930 billion which is -5.8% of GDP.  Add in the North Sea revenues per capita/geographical to Scotland’s revenue and our deficit drops to -5.9% of GDP. 

In 2011-12 including North Sea Revenue our deficit was -3.1% of GDP compared to UK deficit of         -5.9% of GDP and in 2008-09, a year of worldwide recession, Scotland didn’t have a deficit.  We were (including North Sea Revenue) +0.6% of GDP compared to the UK total deficit of   -3.5% of GDP.  Oil revenue, it should be said, was much higher in those two years: £10,872 billion in 2011-12 and £12,393 billion in 2008-09, due to higher prices or productivity.


For further analysis see this blog from John Jappy, a former budget specialist for the Civil Service:


Mr Jappy says: “As a former budget specialist, on analysing the figures over the last five years, I have found that even during the deepest economic downturn since the 1930s, Scotland's finances have been healthier than those of the UK to the tune of £8.3 billion, or nearly £1,650 per person in Scotland.  The figures show that, over the past 5 years, Scotland has generated 9.5% of UK taxes but received just 9.3% of UK spending. Whereas Scotland ran a current budget surplus in 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2008-09, the UK last ran a current budget surplus in 2001-02. Furthermore, Scotland has generated more tax per head than the UK as a whole for every single one of the last 33 years”

A Better Together argument is that Scotland receives more income from WM than it puts in


“Scotland receives over £1200 a year more per head of population in public spending than in other parts of the UK.” 

This refers to the Barnett Formula and is actually not true.  The Barnett Formula does allocate more per head to Scotland than to England but it also allocates more per head to Northern Ireland and Wales than it does to England.  If you break if down even more, more £ is allocated per head to London than is to Scotland. 

Below are links to government reports and also a couple of publications regarding the Barnett Formula.  The Formula itself was set up in the late 1970s, is based on the 1888 Goschen Formula and is named after Joel Barnett who came up with the idea when he was Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  

“The formula’s basis is that it is simply Treasury ‘policy’.  It is not enshrined in statute, or given any legal or constitutional form.  It is simply set out in an internal document of the UK Government.”  It is signed off by the Secretaries for the devolved parliaments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in Westminster.  The devolved finance ministers do not sign this off or approve this when it is updated.


The formula is based on quite a few points which are (from what I can make out):

It applies only to expenditure that the devolved administrations are responsible for (rather than anything under Westminster control).

The formula divides up public spending across the four regions of UK (England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales) based on percentage of population which is taken as 100% across the whole.  Therefore, in 1970 England received 85% of spend, while Scotland received 10%.  This meant that Scotland received 10/85th of what England received or 11.76%.  Since 1999 this has been amended annually so in 2002 Scotland received 10.23% of the English share.  

In addition to this block amount, the Treasury decides if public funding is UK wide or England only.  If spending is England only, the devolved areas receive a percentage amount based on calculations above which they can spend as they like.  An example of this would be Crossrail (benefiting London and the South East) which was deemed to be England only spend.  The devolved administrations all received “consequential” payments which in Scotland’s case was approximately £500 million.  Some spending, however, is deemed to UK Wide and an example of this would be the Olympics which was deemed to benefit the whole country.  As a result there were no “consequential” payments to the devolved administrations, even though the main benefactor was London.

Each devolved administration can also claim money from the UK Contingency Reserve and the decision to award this money is made by the Treasury.  Examples of money being awarded have included the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in 2001 and the cost of policing the G8 summit at Gleneagles in 2005.



The Barnett Formula was only meant to be short term solution and many argue that it is unfair particularly on the English.  One of the biggest issues with changing the Formula seems to be cost.  It should be remembered that just because something is only meant to be short term initially, it doesn’t mean that it can’t be amended (as the Barnett Formula has been, many times) to fit in with  a changing world.  Income Tax was introduced as a temporary measure by William Pitt the Younger to pay for the Napoleonic Wars.

Lack of understanding as to how the Barnett Formula actually works can and does lead to misinformed and biased comments (particularly from the English).  This is one of the main reasons we are seen as “subsidised”



I can’t find complete details for any particular year showing what the base amount for each part of the UK was or how the consequential payments were worked out.  It is true that even Lord Barnett feels that the Formula should be changed.  However, as the Formula is not a law, the Treasury could change it if they wanted to. 

In the case of an independent Scotland, the Barnett Formula money would no longer be coming our way.  It should be noted, however, that figures working on a Scottish economy post independence have never included these figures.


In the above link, the Better Together campaign claimed about  Scottish figures for a budget post independence “This calculation assumes that the Barnett formula – used to calculate Scotland’s budget – would still be in place of Scotland voted to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom. It would not. The Barnett formula would end with independence.”

However, “the SNP has pointed out that the recent calculations which showed an independent Scotland would have a smaller deficit in 2010/11, had nothing to do with the Barnett formula but were in fact based on the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS).”

This seems to back up the argument that, once again, BT are prepared to issue half facts (as with the claim that Scotland receives more per person that everyone else in the UK, above) or just outright lies.

 “When Scotland’s banks collapsed in 2008, the entire UK signed the cheque that kept your branch open and money in your ATM.”

The implication here is that these are Scotland’s banks.  The Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland (I assume they are talking about them) were indeed rescued by the public purse. However, the majority of business completed by both banks these days is actually London based not Scotland.


“Bank of England governor Mark Carney has told MPs there was "a distinct possibility" RBS would have to relocate if Scotland voted for independence.” This is a BBC article from March 2014.  Why would they have to move south?   “His comment was in reference to EU rules requiring a bank's HQ be where it has the bulk of its activities” 

So, Better Together is implying that the banks are based in Scotland and had to be bailed out but actually the majority of their business is in London.


“For sure, the Royal Bank of Scotland is registered under the starry dome of Dundas House, a handsome townhouse in Edinburgh's Georgian New Town.

But it has been a long time since the bulk of the bank's business was conducted here.

Likewise, Lloyds Banking Group is registered in Edinburgh's Old Town, in a building which helps define the city skyline, under the green dome of the old Bank of Scotland headquarters.

But this is more an accident of corporate history than an indication of where Lloyds makes its money” says the BBC report (see link above)

“Neither bank will comment officially on whether their registered offices would move, let alone on what effect such a move might have on their head offices or on jobs.”

The report goes on “But if the effect on employment was minimal such moves could be good news for an independent Scotland, removing the prospect of having to bail out these giants if they ran into trouble again.”

So, we appear to be looking at the movement of a brass plate and registration document.  These banks are no longer “Scottish”.  They have not been for a long time.  Better Together are deliberately misleading once again.

“one of the nationalists’ favourite arguments is that we pay more in tax than we get out in spending. This is just not true.”

 What it doesn’t tell you is that the whole of the UK receives more per head of population in public spending than it puts in.  We certainly have received more in £ than we have put in in the last year but so has the rest of the UK.  That is why we are in debt.  That is why the UK government continues to rack up debt. 

“Two impartial expert bodies have both said that if we go it alone we would need to make severe cuts to our budget almost immediately if we were to balance the books. The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicted that we would need to make up to £6bn worth of cuts in the coming years.”

 Once again, half a story from Better Together here.  We may see increased austerity in an independent Scotland.  We will definitely see increased austerity in an ongoing united kingdom.


Above is a BBC report from 2012 confirming the government’s announcement of “the biggest cuts in state spending since World War II.”  It goes on “Savings estimated at about £83bn are to be made over four years. The plan is to cut 490,000 public sector jobs”.  It is currently 2014.  We are only half way through the cuts.  There are more to come if we stay with the UK so why use this as an argument against independence? In fact George Osborne confessed in his Autumn budget 2013 that austerity would continue until 2018.

I could continue on the Better Together leaflet but I think you see where I am coming from.  The information is half baked.  They are not giving you the whole picture on the economy.

 

It is true that our wealth is currently based on oil.  Without it, if you look at the government figures, we would be that subsidised country we are so often accused of being.  Scotland has other natural resources and we are learning to harness these, not just to provide for ourselves, but to provide for others outside our country. We have wind and water and neither of these will run out.


Last year 40.3% of our energy generated came from renewable sources and we exported 26% of the energy generated.  Scotland is aiming for 100% renewable energy generation by 2020 and we are on target for this.  We are investing in tidal power and wind farms are becoming more efficient.  As an independent country it will not be long before we supply 100% of our own energy needs from renewable sources.  We may even expand on our exporting.


In the above You Tube link, at 52.33mins, a post graduate renewable energy student points out that Orkney has been told that it will be 10 years before they will be connected to mainland Scotland to enable them to export the extra electricity they are currently generating (last year 103% generated – 3% could not be exported).  She also points out that the UK government is bound by OFGEM and that this is not an issue related to the referendum.  Her belief is that an independent Scotland will give a higher priority to linking the peripheral areas

Our water needs are accountable to us through the Scottish Government – our water is not privatised!  We have plenty of water and this will become one of the world’s most precious commodities in the future if over 90% of world environmental scientists are to be believed.  Water is hard to export and move around whilst keeping fresh so it is an interesting conundrum as to how we would achieve any exporting on a large scale.  In the meantime, we are using water to provide us with power – hydro stations, tidal energy..


The above link is the most recent report on our economy and while it urges caution in some areas:

“To date, much of the recovery has been consumption-led. While welcome and consistent with other post-recession periods, this will have to be accompanied by a pick-up in real wage growth and household incomes if it is to be sustained at current levels. Otherwise there is the potential risk of a reversal in household finances and the deleveraging (paying down of debts) process which was a prominent feature in the period up to 2013. Linked to this also is the recovery in the housing market and the extent to which this is driving consumption.”

It also looks ahead with optimism:

“Scotland’s economy grew by 1.6 per cent during 2013, the first calendar year since 2007 with four quarters of growth. Economic output is now expected to surpass its pre-recession peak during the first half of 2014.”

We have other factors that are unique to Scotland for our economy – the whisky industry is a classic example.  We also have thriving tourist and textiles industries.  Scottish food – salmon, beef, lamb, shortbread etc etc is exported across the world.

As with almost every country in the world, we have much to do to recover from the recession, there is no denying that – but would we be in a better position to recover if we are part of the UK or independent?  Note the part in the quote above about growth – “this will have to be accompanied by a pick-up in real wage growth and household incomes if it is to be sustained at current levels”.  I do not see that the current UK government is doing much to improve real wage growth (unless you are already rich).  While recently MPs were awarded an 11% pay rise, NHS staff were told that the top bands of each grade only would receive a pay rise of 1%.  Many people in both the public and private sectors have had their pay frozen for several years while food prices rocket.  I do not see a movement towards “real wage growth” in the UK at present.  Nor do I see this being addressed by potential successors of the current WM government.  I do see efforts from the Scottish Government to increase wages across the board (all NHS staff to receive 1% pay rise) and to help those hit by certain taxes – more on that below.

There is growing unrest across all of the UK about the constant investment in London.  Newspaper articles speak of a London-centric country.  The new HS2 rail link will connect Birmingham and London initially and then extend further north and yet in Scotland some of our key roads are in urgent need of upgrading.  The HS2 link will cost the UK taxpayer approximately £50.1 billion according to the government’s estimates but many fear the cost will be higher.  Within England (where the link will be situated) there is growing concern about various aspects of the rail link – even “The Commons public accounts committee has accused the Department for Transport of failing to present a “convincing strategic case” for HS2 by basing its argument on “fragile numbers, out-of-date data and assumptions which do not reflect real life”.


Given that the link is not estimated to reach the north of England before 2033, it is hard to see how Scotland will benefit.  HS2 and the increasing concern at a London-centric UK show that it is not just the Scottish who feel alienated by Parliament and their remoteness from the rest of the population.


“Since 2010, 79% of private sector jobs growth had occurred in London. Britain's next nine largest cities accounted for just 10% of all new private sector jobs created”.

I do not think that this imbalance is good for the growth of the economy of UK in the long run.

However, I believe that we are more likely to help ourselves get out of this situation by investing in our people and our corporations.  Numerous case studies have proved that if you invest in the education of your young, you will reap the rewards.  Scotland in the 18/19th Century proved this by having one the best education systems worldwide with 75% of the population able to read and write. We produced a staggering amount of entrepreneurs, engineers, economists, scientists, doctors, teachers – I could go on.  Smaller projects worldwide currently prove this theory.    The SQA Curriculum for Excellence may have its faults and teething problems but this is an attempt to address the issue that not everyone is suited to academia and some people learn better by doing rather than being told.  The new National 4 and National 5 system seems to be trying to give those who will do well in vocational careers, the chance to experience them from a young age and giving them more opportunities to get onto those career paths in the first place. Many businesses in Scotland have become involved in this strategy, giving young people a chance to work as interns (paid), or be taught basic business skills like answering the phone, conducting themselves at interviews etc..  With regard to further education, Scotland has five universities that feature in the top 200 universities list worldwide (2013).  If we continue investing in the education of our young, the long term outlook for our country can only be positive.

EU Membership

I’m quite bored by the whole EU thing as so much rubbish has been spouted about it and so I am going to site a few facts and then let you make up your own mind.

There is no precedence set for whether or not we can remain in the EU, whether we have to re-apply or whether we can even join as an independent country.  Our situation has never happened before and is unique.  There have been cases where two countries split (the Velvet Divorce of Czechoslovakia into Czech Republic and Slovakia) and after Greenland obtained Home Rule from Denmark, Greenland was removed from the customs territories and legal framework of the EU following its decision to leave the EU.

There has been a prominent case of one member state becoming larger by encompassing a non member.  The Unification of Germany came into effect on 3 October 1990 at which point East Germany was immediately welcomed into the European Community.  East Germany joined West Germany as a member state (becoming one member state) after the Maastricht Treaty came into effect in early 1993.  From what I can make out, this intervening time was simply ironing out a few issues and ticking boxes.

The link below is to a UK government page.


It states:

“Arrangements for Scotland’s EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence

· Scotland’s 5 million people, having been members of the EU for 40 years; have acquired rights as European citizens

· For practical and political reasons they could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission.”

It says more but I think you get my drift.  Even the UK government thinks we will become a member of the EU.

 


The above is a newspaper article with quotes from both the Spanish Prime Minister Senor Rajoy and the outgoing EC President, Senor Barosso – both state that we will not be allowed to continue as an EU state.  However, nobody seems to have questioned where these men obtained the authority to speak on this.  It is well known that Spain has independence issues of her own – could they be biased and trying to avoid a precedent being set?  Barosso’s claim in not so easy to explain – I am still tracking down possible motivation to this, especially in light of the EU legal stance, see below.


"The Commission has no intention of beginning to speculate about different scenarios relating to the upcoming referendum in Scotland and their possible implications."

This quote is from an email reply sent to David Ferguson who wrote to Romero Requena, Director General of the Legal Service in the European Commission this year.  The email, sent on 25 March 2014, was from Jens Nymand Christensen, Director of Secretariat-General of the European Commission and the email starts:

"Thank you for your letter of 25 February addressed to Mr Romero Requena, Director General of the Legal Service in the European Commission, to which he has asked me to answer…"

On reading the rest of David Ferguson’s blog and the Westminster Report I found much of what they say makes perfect sense.  Why would the EU go out of its way to cause problems to people who have been in the EU for 40 years?  Why would they be so vitriolic? Can they, lawfully, push us out of the EU at all?

More recently the incoming EC President Jean-Claude Juncker stated that he would be looking for a “break from enlargement” of the EU.  Although many claimed this was a blow to the Scottish cause, Juncker’s spokeswoman confirmed that he was “not referring to Scotland” and an EU official later stated that Juncker “would not want Scotland to be kept out”.


 

OIL

As with the currency issue, the thorny topic of oil attracts wildly diverse opinions and statements from both sides

In April 2014 HM Revenue & Customs released their statistics of “Government Revenues from UK Oil and Gas Production”.


The figures don’t look good.  “In the last two years Corporation Tax revenues have declined by 60% from £8.8 billion in 2011-12 to £3.6 billion and Petroleum Revenue Tax by 45% from £2.0 billion to £1.1 billion in 2013-14.”  Further investigation into the same document reveals the drop in revenue in the last 2 years is “a result of lower production and higher expenditure”.  It doesn’t say that the drop in revenue is due to less oil.

 

My investigation of oil revenues and the industry in general has led to a few eye opening nuggets of information.

Total revenue 2013-14 (exc gas levy) was £4.67 billion dropping from £6.13 billion the year before and £10.87 billion the year before that.  However, revenue went right down to less than a £ billion in 1991-2 and I cannot remember anyone saying the oil was running out then.

The Scotsman after the 2013 report made the following comment about the revenue drop

“A gas leak and evacuation at the vast Elgin oil field in the North Sea a year ago, which led to an 11-month unplanned shutdown, was by far the biggest cause of the slump in oil and gas production. The closure of the oil field, which accounted for around 5 per cent of the UK’s total oil and gas production before the accident last March, knocked an estimated 0.2 percentage points off the UK economy in 2012. It resumed production earlier this week but is not expected to reach full capacity until 2015.”

What is less well known is the huge investment in new technology by the oil companies over the last couple of years.  Investment, I discover, has been £14.4 billion – that’s quite a lot to spend in a country where the oil is about to run out.

Other factors don’t add up.  If the oil is decreasing, why are so many oil and oil related companies building brand new offices in Aberdeen?

There are several business parks being built at the moment in Aberdeen.  The most prestigious one is called Prime Four where the first tenants moved in this year.  http://primefour.co.uk/life-at-prime-four/tenants

The above link shows you the companies that have taken tenancies at Prime Four and gives comments by each.  Here is what a couple of them say:

Apache - “Our recently announced acquisition of the Beryl field and related assets will significantly expand Apache’s operations in the North Sea and heralds a new period of growth. Prime Four represents a very positive environment for our new, combined team. Our decision to locate there underlines our ongoing commitment to the UKCS and the North East of Scotland.” – James L House, Region Vice-President and Managing Director of Apache North Sea Limited

Nexen Petroleum Limited – “The UK North Sea is a key producing area for us, and we are continuing to actively explore in the region. Going forward, Prime Four provides us with an excellent world-class base for the long term.” - Bob Fennell, Director of Operations for Nexen Petroleum UK Ltd

There are several other business parks – ABZ, Stoneywood, Aberdeen Gateway, D2, Balmoral as well as new office buildings on the river in Aberdeen itself where companies like GDF Suez have built or are building their new offices.

One thing I know for certain is that businessmen do not build new offices nor invest in something where they do not see a profit to be made.  I am 100% sure that these people are not investing to show approval for Alex Salmond or the Yes campaign.  There is oil.  There is going to be oil for some time.  The oil companies see it and we should too.

In July 2014 it came to light that there appears to be unexpected quantities of oil found off Shetland.  Nothing has been confirmed officially, however, it seems that either there is more oil than was thought or perhaps that it is easier to extract.  Rumours are flying about this


Let’s not dwell on that though and stick to the facts such as the link below which confirms that Acer Solutions set a target for employing more staff in Scotland in 2014 and have already passed that target


And have a look at Acer Solutions’ 2nd quarter report below – look at page 9 under Regions


“The North Sea is Aker Solutions’ biggest market and recent

large offshore UK and Norway discoveries have led to

several new field developments. Investments are expected

to remain high, even as exploration and production spending

is seen flattening in the short term.”

This is not the language of a company that expects to see little or no return.

 

I also came across this blog which I found very informative.  This is worth a read.


 

There is also the recent announcement of a 22% increase in international sales from our oil and gas supply chain from 2011-12 to 2012-13.  http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/International-oil-gas-supply-chain-grow-to-record-levels-c28.aspx While America remains the world leader, we are doing ok on our side with the export of oil related products and expertise – again, an indication that it doesn’t appear to be running out in the near future.

I recently became involved in a twitter discussion with someone who quoted a Moody’s report on oil which did not look good:


(sorry, you have to sign up for Moody’s to see this – it’s free)

This Moody’s report is not hopeful of oil revenues increasing – the overall conclusion being that we should not depend on oil revenue and without it we will not manage to balance our books.  They give several sources including GERS (Scottish Govt figures), OBR and Eurostats



Above links are to Scottish Government figures and Eurostats.

I have a few problems with the Moody’s report which my “combatant” on twitter was unable to explain to my satisfaction.  Please note that there is a difference between budget balance and fiscal balance.  All of the information below is based on Fiscal balance.

The Scottish Government figures show a fiscal deficit for Scotland 2012-13 of -8.3% and show a fiscal deficit for UK of -7.3%.  The Moody report states that the UK fiscal deficit is -5.2% - where have they got this figure?  On application to Moody’s by my sparring partner, they confirmed that they took the Scottish figures from the Scottish Government report (can see that – they match), and the UK figures from Eurostats.  Not sure about mixing and matching sources, but still.

I emailed the Scottish Government and asked for verification of the figures.  Their response is attached here:


As you can see, they confirm what I thought about mixing statistic sources.

 The Scottish and UK governments use “public sector net borrowing” for their calculations while OBR and Eurostat calculate their deficit figures differently “this deficit measure is on a gross rather than a net basis and it does not include the entire public sector”

“A meaningful comparison of Scotland’s and the UK’s fiscal positions can only be made, however, if the deficit figures are on the same basis. In order to compare Scotland’s net fiscal deficit of 8.3%, the only comparable number is the 7.3% figure, as published in GERS.” 

Moody’s also use OBR forecast to strengthen their (already shaky) argument.


The OBR forecasts show less oil and gas production and lower price – p92 – based on DECC www.gov.uk/oil-and-gas-uk-field-data

 

The quote below is from p95 of the OBR report

“Our oil price forecast moves in line with the average of the futures curve over the ten working days to 27 February 2014 for the next two years, and is held flat at that level for the remainder of the forecast period. Movements in oil prices and the sterling/dollar exchange rate mean that the sterling price of oil is slightly higher than we assumed in December until 2015-16 and lower thereafter. We use the same method to project gas prices. These are also lower than we assumed in December.

4.17 Oil and gas production forecasts are based on the central projection published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Oil production fell 8.8 per cent in 2013 and gas production fell by 7.2 per cent. Oil production is expected to fall a further 3.6 per cent in 2014 and then remain flat across the remainder of the forecast. These forecasts are little changed since December.”

Hang on a minute – they have calculated their forecast for two years based on 10 days and then kept the forecast flat – no increase, no decrease, FLAT!  Am I reading this right? P97 shows that they have indeed left production of oil at a flat rate of 39.2 million tonnes per year from 2014/15-2018/19 and gas product at 12.7 billion tonnes per year from 2014/15-2018/19.  What about the investment by oil companies? What about the returns they are expecting? What about the new office blocks and quotes above from the oil companies themselves talking about “new period of growth” and “long term”?  I am neither impressed nor convinced.  All the other figures in the report show movement – why not the north sea revenue figures?

Finally, instead of basing the figures on what OBR and Moodys say, what does the Oil and Gas sector itself say?  In their Activity Survey 2014, Oil and Gas UK, the voice of the offshore industry, say:

“Over the last three years, production has declined 38 per cent, but with the combination of new field start-ups and fields coming back on-stream, it is expected to begin to pick up in 2014.

• Whilst production efficiency has fallen from an average of around 80 per cent to 60 per cent over the last decade, it is expected to improve in 2014.

 • As a result, operators are more positive about their asset performance, with more than 80 per cent predicting production will improve in 2014, compared with less than 50 per cent anticipating such a trend in 2013.

• Looking ahead, 25 fields are expected to start production in the next two years bringing combined reserves of 1.3 billion boe on-stream. By 2018, 40 per cent of production will come from new field developments; this emphasises the need to continually mature opportunities following exploration.”


Please note that the above report from Oil and Gas was issued prior to any recent results from places such as Claire Ridge.  So oil production will be going up according to the people whose job it is to know.

OIL FUND

A small aside on the oil subject.  There has been a lot of talk from Yes campaigners of an oil fund such as Norway has.  Norway is a different case to us.  Oil was discovered in the 1960s and the Norwegian Government set up its own oil company in 1972.  They have had an oil fund since 1996.  We, however, can make the most of the oil that is left and start an oil fund.  We can put some money aside for that rainy day which appears to come every few years when the oil revenue drops.  I am totally for this.  After a Yes vote, this will be a priority for me and will heavily influence how I vote in the Scotland elections.  All the income from oil to date has been squandered – all of it!  And when it runs out, it will run out whether we are part of UK or independent.  The most commonly held figure is that there are about 50 years left of oil and I would rather be in a country that had made provision for that day. 

Last year’s drop in revenue from oil brought the UK government £4.7billion. In 2012-13 the revenue brought in £6.1 billion.  The total UK government receipts forecast for that year http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf were £591.7 billion.  Oil provided just over 1% of the UK government’s revenue.  And that was in a bad year.  If we make no provisions and simply spend the cash from this finite resource we will find that the populace will one day have to make up that difference in income with nothing to show for the additional wealth we had.

An oil fund has not been suggested or discussed by WM.  If we stay with rUK, an oil fund will not happen.  It recently transpired that an oil fund was rejected by the UK Labour Government under James Callaghan in the 1970s.



The above link is John Jappy explaining the oil situation in the 1970s and the government’s attitude to Scotland and oil in general.  Makes me wonder, if they lied about it before aren’t they capable of lying about it again (OBR report)?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maritime Borders

This is connected to oil and our sea revenues so it is important.


The above picture shows the maritime border between English and Scottish waters.

“In 1999 Tony Blair…redrew the existing English/Scottish maritime boundary to annex 6,000 square miles of Scottish waters to England, including the Argyll field and six other major oilfields. The idea was specifically to disadvantage Scotland’s case for independence.”

These are the words of Craig Murray, ex Head of the Maritime Section of the Foreign and Commonwealth office.  If Scotland votes to stay with the Union, is there any guarantee that this border will not be pushed further north?


Mr Murray goes on:

“The UK’s other maritime boundaries are based on what is known formally in international law as the modified equidistance principle. The England/Scotland border was of course imposed, not negotiated. It is my cold, professional opinion that this border lies outside the range of feasible solutions that could be obtained by genuine negotiation, arbitration or judgement.”

Mr Murray explains in his blog that “I was the Alternate Head of the UK Delegation to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and was number 2 on the UK team that negotiated the UK/Ireland, UK/Denmark (Shetland/Faeroes), UK/Belgium, and Channel Islands/France maritime boundaries, as well as a number of British Dependent Territories boundaries. There are very few people in the World – single figures – who have more experience of actual maritime boundary negotiation than me.”

Although all of the oil currently being extracted from the North Sea is off Scottish land, it is not, in fact, all in Scottish waters.  If we remain with the UK we stand more of a chance of losing our sea than we do of regaining any of it.  If we are independent, we can at least fight legally for our offshore property back.

Trident, NATO and Defence

According to the RN website there are 6,500 naval and civilian personnel at HMNB Clyde (Faslane and Coulport).   This site is also home to 4 Nuclear Submarines (Vanguard class) amongst other vessels and hosts visits from other NATO naval vessels from time to time.


According to the Caledonian Mercury blog there are between “12,500 and 16,000 people employed in the defence industries in Scotland. Most owe their jobs to UK contracts – the shipbuilding centres on the Clyde and at Rosyth, employing nearly 5,000 people between them are a case in point.”


Most Scottish political parties are against having Trident in Scotland, 30 miles from our largest population centre.  We contribute as a part of the UK to the upkeep and any potential upgrade of nuclear missiles.  Lt Colonel Stuart Crawford pointed out in a blog in 2010 (see link under Stuart Crawford within above link) that Trident is not a deterrent.  We are tied in to the US with it and actually cannot even use it without their approval.  Most people agree that if we use Trident in anger, it would be disastrous so is it just an empty threat?

According to CND each warhead “has an explosive power of up to 100 kilotons of conventional high explosive.  This is 8 times the power of the nuclear bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, killing an estimated 240,000 people from blast and radiation.” 

Each submarine carries eight nuclear missiles each of which can carry up to five warheads.


Just as the three major political parties have ruled out a currency union for Scotland in the case of independence, so the SNP and other parties have ruled out Scotland continuing to play host to Trident in an independent Scotland.  Trident (or rather the warheads and other weapons) would need to move south of the border to somewhere suitably “remote”. 

There is a planned upgrade to Trident coming about and this is due to cost around £50 billion by budget government figures, although many other estimates rate the cost at well over £100 billion.  A recent report looking into alternatives shows that replacing Trident would cost a great deal more than simply upgrading.


The following caveat is in bold on the above government pdf: “The costs presented are for comparison purposes only. They are not suitable for budget setting or investment decisions. Nor do they represent a comparison of equivalent constant capability because the performance levels, vulnerability and postures differ between the options”

I don’t understand much of the report, but the overall gist seems to be that Trident is better and cheaper than any alternative.  It doesn’t seem to look at a non-nuclear future.

Scotland does not want Trident.  Maybe it’s because this is on our doorstep and yet we seem to be kept in the dark about any leaks



I do not want to be part of a nuclear fuelled country and the only chance I have of achieving that is through independence.

The jobs that are linked to defence in Scotland are both civilian and through the armed forces themselves.  If Trident moves south it is likely that the naval personnel will go too.  Of the civilian posts across Scotland, the case is argued that many of these people will lose their jobs.  However, Scotland will need her own defence forces.  Faslane is lined up to become the headquarters for the new Scottish Defence Forces.  It seems unlikely to me that the civilian personnel currently employed by HM Forces would be overlooked in the need for civilian personnel to work for a Scottish Defence Force. 

I don’t know enough about the other civilians in defence related jobs.  I need to find out more.  I am unsure if the jobs at Rosyth will get enough work from Scottish Defence or if they will be able to attract business from overseas – does it even have to be defence related? I appreciate that this is important and am continuing to search for information.


Stuart Crawford updated his original thoughts on a Scottish Defence Force in 2012 and the above link details what he believes we can achieve with a “modest” defence force.

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, had this to say:

“a small Scottish defence force would struggle to attract recruits and was unlikely to be sustainable in the long term.”


Another argument is that we will be unprotected in the event of independence.  Below is a link to an online news report about Scottish defence currently.  It quotes Philip Hammond saying  "We do not need a frigate stationed in Scottish waters; We need good intelligence about the intentions of vessels approaching the UK's area of interest, and we have that good intelligence."

 The report goes on to confirm that “The Russian aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, strayed into waters near the Moray Firth just before Christmas.  The Royal Navy was left red faced and vulnerable when its only option was to despatch a vessel from 600 miles away in Portsmouth to shadow the Russian ship, taking 24 hours to arrive.” Apparently after the Russian ship was sighted, the MOD resorted to social media to confirm that Russian ships were indeed in that part of the world on exercises. 

This confirms that under the current system we are perfectly well defended as long as our enemies announce their intention to invade on social media and give us 24 hours to react.  Quite frankly, given the military cutbacks that have taken place so far, I do not think that “good intelligence” is showing itself to be much of a replacement for a couple of frigates patrolling our waters.


Angus Robertson, SNP MP has stated:

“The RAF has no maritime patrol aircraft and the Royal Navy has no conventional ocean-going vessels based in Scotland. These capabilities are essential to properly managing northern security matters. After a Yes vote in 2014 Scotland will join our northern European neighbours like Norway and Denmark who take these challenges seriously and which will be to the benefit to all in north Europe, including the rest of the UK.”


NATO

A great deal has been made of our joining (or not) NATO if independence becomes a reality.

There are 28 members of NATO. 25 of these 28 members do not have nuclear weapons.

The NATO website states: “NATO membership is open to “any other European state in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area.””


Lord George Robertson has claimed that it “would be cataclysmic for Scotland to become independent, it would aid the forces of darkness, it would threaten the stability of the western world'. “


His claims have been dismissed by many, although there have also been reports in the media claiming that we will not gain access to NATO.  Unlike the EU, I think it is likely that we will have to apply for membership of NATO, should we wish to be a member.  This belief is justified by news reports of informal meetings between Scotland and NATO revealing that we would “have to resolve military or territorial disputes with other members before joining.” – see above on maritime borders and Scottish Defence Forces.  It makes sense that Scotland would have to have agreed and defined borders plus some sort of defence force prior to becoming a member of NATO – after all it is a military based organisation.


DEVOLVED SCOTLAND AND DEVO MAX

Scotland has had devolved powers for 15 years and has achieved much in that time under various successive governments, within its limited budget. 

Where England has priced a university place at £9000 per annum, making further education impossible for many, Scotland has maintained free further education for Scottish students.

In Scotland we have well balanced meals provided to primary school children (I know we aren’t perfect – Martha Payne’s blog proves that.  However, when my son was at primary school in Scotland, a conversation with a friend in England revealed her child was given turkey twizzlers and chips on a regular basis).

From January 2015, all P1-3 children will have access to free school meals.

We have free part time nursery places for three and four year olds and this is being extended to 2 year olds

We have free eye tests.

We have free prescriptions.

We do not have privatised water.

We do not have an increasingly privatised NHS

The Scottish Government is giving a blanket 1% pay rise to all NHS staff and supplementing pay for all those earning under £21,000. http://www.nursingtimes.net/nursing-practice/clinical-zones/management/nhs-nursing-staff-in-scotland-to-get-blanket-1-pay-rise/5068922.article

This is after it was revealed that in rUK only those in the top band for each grade will receive a pay rise.

After the 11% pay rise IPSA the “independent” body awarded MPs at the end of 2013, the Scottish Parliament has confirmed that MSPs will in future receive pay rises in accordance with public sector rises. http://www.ardrossanherald.com/news/roundup/articles/2013/12/12/482010-mp-and-msp-united-in-slamming-proposed-pay-rise/

All of these things have been implemented for the good of all, not just a few.  Over 15 years, we have been ruled by successive governments that are working for social justice and equality. Scotland has proved over many years by the way we vote, that we are a socialist country.  We continue to vote for traditionally socialist parties to represent us in Westminster and we vote for socialist parties to govern us from Holyrood.  I cannot see that we will change from this in an independent Scotland. 

Many parties arguing for independence are also agreed on abolishing laws brought in by Westminster over which Scotland currently has no control.  This includes:

The Bedroom Tax.  A hated tax across the UK which is agreed to penalise the poor, this would be abolished with immediate effect following a Yes vote, it has been confirmed by the SNP government.

The Scottish government has been trying to find ways of helping those affected by the tax and in December 2013 the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee confirmed:

“The Committee is disappointed that factors outwith the Scottish Government’s control have delayed certain aspects of the Home Energy Efficiency Programme. Whilst we acknowledge the importance of funding energy efficiency measures we support the Scottish Government’s proposed budget transfer from the Home Energy Efficiency Programme (coupled with savings from the enterprise bodies and other budget lines) to provide support to people as a result of the impact of the UK Government’s under occupation of social housing charges (“the bedroom tax”).”



 

Devo Max

To be clear – there is no Devo Max offer on the table.  There have been watered down versions discussed by parties who are not currently in power, both Labour and the Lib Dems promising further powers to Scotland if we vote No and if they win the 2015 General Election.  Recently the Conservatives have also come forward with a vague suggestion that more powers would be awarded to Scotland in the event of a No vote. 

However, Devo Max, initially hoped by many to be a third question on the referendum paper, was removed by the Coalition.  Alex Salmond was reported in the papers as being “increasingly desperate to get a "devo max" option to devolve more powers on the ballot paper” as the First Minister and Prime Minister came close to agreeing the final wording of the referendum.


The reason Salmond was said to have wanted Devo Max and David Cameron refused to entertain it, seems to have been that both sides thought that in a straightforward yes/no vote, the No vote would carry the day.

As we get closer to the referendum and the opinion polls tighten, it seems that  “an historic opportunity was missed by the coalition in not offering the Scots the option of “devo max” in the forthcoming referendum”.  Even though the article below from which this quote was taken, is of the opinion that the No vote will carry the day, it still thinks Devo Max would have been a good idea.


I am certain that increased powers are not in line for Scotland if there is a No vote.  If further powers were not a problem, why did the coalition refuse to allow it as a question on the ballot paper?  You could argue that The Scotland Act 2012 will bring us increased powers no matter what any WM political party states but I cannot find much in this Act beyond minor tinkering with the current situation.  If this Act gave us a large amount of increased power over ourselves, this would have been used by the Better Together campaign (and rightly so). 

Since 1945 there have been 18 General Elections in the UK.  Scotland’s vote has made a difference to the party in power twice out of all those 18 – 1964 and 1974.  In 2010 the Scottish vote stopped the Conservatives from carrying a clear majority.  It did not stop them being the party in power.  We currently have no power over our own destiny. 

I am increasingly uneasy about calls for the Barnett Formula to be scrapped in the event we vote No.  Despite Scotland providing more per head to the coffers of Westminster, it is due to the Barnett Formula that we receive a higher percentage of the UK spend than our population suggests we should.



While I haven’t heard this being spoken of by the No campaign at all, it is undeniable that there are rumblings in rUK concerning this and I have read no official denials that it won’t be scrapped.  In the event of a No vote, will we find ourselves facing greater austerity measures due to Barnett Formula disappearing?  I have tried not to surmise too much in this paper only allowing myself to detail facts but this does concern me and I can’t find any information to confirm that Barnett Formula will stay in place.

EVERYDAY LIVING

Will our cost of living go up if we vote for Yes?  Will it go up if we vote for No?  Will it go down in either case?

Food

Late 2013 brought us the information that food bills would go up in an independent Scotland and the media covered this in detail:



However, within one week, the four major supermarkets denied that this was the case:



I do know that prices have been increasing in a unified UK over the last few years.  There is a link further down to a UK government document that confirms household bills for those on the lowest income will go up by over £800 a year following the most recent budget.

Jobs

There has been a great deal of scaremongering over companies leaving Scotland in the event of an independence vote.  I suppose there may be some that move or close their offices in Scotland in favour of increased employment elsewhere in the UK.  However, like my argument about oil, why would a company do that – it will cost money to rehouse people or employ and train new staff – money that could be profit!

In February Standard Life announced “it was considering moving some of its operations out of Scotland as part of contingency plans being lined up ahead of the independence referendum.”  Johann Lamont spoke in the Scottish Parliament saying “Standard Life has made plans to leave Scotland if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom”.  It should be remember also that Standard Life “has previous form in these matters. As long ago as 1992 it warned that devolution – never mind independence – might cause it to relocate south of the border.”  It is still in Scotland.  I’m not saying that it won’t leave, it might.  However, it is listed on the London Stock Exchange and I’m not sure how shareholders will take it when they are told that any profit 2014-15 will be used up relocating and training staff, leasing and furnishing new premises etc etc…  You would have to wonder why it would want to move anyway, considering it operates in many countries worldwide.



For every company that says it is leaving, there is another that says it’s not.  Aberdeen Asset Management recently announced that itwill not take action to re-domicile any of its investment trusts before the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014”.  They confirmed “The process of changing domicile to England is costly”.  I think I just said that!

Companies go where there is profit.  Companies have outlets all over the world. From a business viewpoint it makes no sense to leave a country without finding out first if that country will give you favourable trading conditions or not.

Benefits

It has been confirmed recently that pensions will not be affected in an independent Scotland.

The existing Scottish Devolved Government is doing more to help people on any form of benefit or subject to any unjust law (Bedroom Tax) than the Westminster Government is.  A change of Government in London could only mean Labour becoming the largest party and Labour have vowed to continue the austerity measures which have meant so much hardship for people who are out of work, ill, on a low wage.

 

 

CONCLUSION

I have spent months reading and trying to understand official reports and data.  I have listened to news reports and read newspapers on line – as many as I can.  We are currently a part of the UK.  I am not the only one, I know, who is discontented with current affairs.  Apart from small (maybe petty) issues such as huge BBC coverage of the Cup Final in England – Arsenal winning for the first time in 9 years - over the weekend of 17-18 May and not a single mention of St Johnstone’s first Scottish Cup Final win in its 130 year history, there are many things that concern me about staying the UK.  If we are better together with the UK and they can offer us further powers, why haven’t they implemented these before?  Why are their main arguments that we can’t do it, we are too small, too stupid?  Why is there an assumption by these people that we actually want to be a world power?  I have looked and looked for positive arguments for remaining with the UK.  Apart from being frightened to strike out on our own or a sentimental bias, I cannot find any solid arguments.  I am increasingly angered by statements taken as fact from politicians, business men, media that closer inspection reveals are completely fabricated or contain half-truths and/or massaged figures.

I think rUK is a great place and would willingly be a friendly neighbour.  However, I am concerned by their increasingly right wing stance and the rich/poor divide that gets bigger all the time.  See the two links below.  One stating that the lowest paid will see their household bills go up by over £800 per year according to a recent WM report and the other showing how the rich have increased their wealth in the last few years.



I despise the fact that our WM politicians fight tooth and nail to protect bankers’ bonuses and pay in Europe whilst condemning the majority of the population to poverty, anxiety, homelessness and even death.  There are over 2400 bankers in the UK who receive a wage of over 1million Euros per annum.  This is three times the number of bankers in the whole of the rest of Europe on this wage.  In Germany, the largest country in Europe, the number of bankers on this wage is 170.  Why are these people protected?  What are they doing for us?  Err, not much.  They brought the country to its knees economically and the rest of us are paying for it while they are rewarded with bonuses that they don’t deserve.


I hate the propaganda that speaks of “hard working families” and “scroungers”, that vilifies immigrants when the figures do not back that up.  I agree that there are always those that will sponge off the state but I would also argue that there are not enough of them and they don’t receive enough money to bring a country to its knees.  The bankers on their huge wages who play with our lives, the huge corporations who pay no corporate tax, the MPs themselves who claim expenses for bird houses, removal of wisteria from their garden wall, bookshelves, etc etc….  These are the people that are the “scroungers” in my view.

I believe that if we vote for an independent Scotland we can change the whole political spectrum.  It is in our power.  The interest, research and discussion across the whole of Scotland proves that we really care about this vote.  We are all taking an enormous interest in the future of our country.  If we vote Yes, what is to stop us carrying that into our new parliament and voting for the parties (possibly even new ones) that guarantee better equality across the populace, good education, care for our sick and elderly.  I have no problem with people making money and becoming successful.  I just don’t like to see it at the expense of those who need help or guidance.

A strong argument against independence seems to be that we cannot guarantee what will happen.  This is also a strong argument against staying with UK.  I remember that the recession came out of the blue – nobody expected it.  You cannot guarantee anything in life.  You need to make a judgement call based on the information you have – that is what I have tried to do here.

Below is a newspaper article from 2012 explaining just how wrong forecasts by various people (particularly OBR) have been in the past:


"a majority of economists did not think we were in [a recession] when the three most recent recessions, in 1990, 2001, and 2007, were later determined to have begun." And yet we still hang on the words of forecasters when they tell us what growth to expect in five years' time.”

I am not basing arguments on forecasts although I know many are.  From what I can see though, the arguments are always one sided.  Recently both the Scottish Government and UK government released figures on the future on the economy of an Independent Scotland. They varied widely.  The UK figures were almost immediately disowned by the two professors that were held to have “provided” most of the information but the No campaign don’t talk about that, instead concentrating on picking apart the Yes campaign’s figures.  By contrast, the Yes side sounded like a stuck record decrying the No figures.  The only thing that came across to me loud and clear is that nobody really knows what will happen – whether we stay in the UK or not.  Ultimately this is not about economics, this is about a decision to control your future or have it controlled for you.

 

One last thing – since and including 1945, well over 100 countries across the world have become independent.  I have never read (let’s leave the Crimea out of this – whole new can of worms) of ANY of these countries asking to return to the fold and become dependent once again on another country. 


 

 

 

This is a working document and will constantly be updated. I welcome input from everyone.  All I ask is that you quote your source to me so that I can investigate further.  I am a Yes voter but I am open to discussion and information from all sides.

You are welcome to pass this on to other people.  However, as the document is constantly being updated, you may want to apply for the most recent version before passing it on.  Certain queries that people raise may already have been addressed in the revised document.